Construction Outlook 2002
There is always a level of uncertainty when developing forecasts,
but this year industry economists faced a bigger challenge
due to the fall-out from the September 11 attacks, lower
business and consumer confidence, sharp fluctuations in the
stock market, and federal, state, and provincial budget constraints.
As a result, the forecasts for 2002 range from the most pessimistic
projection by the Portland Cement Association of a 6.3% drop
in the value of construction, to FMI’s optimistic projection
of continued growth. Within that range are F.W. Dodge’s
and the Commerce Department’s more moderate projections.
Although the forecasts vary, they all call for growth
in selected building types during 2002, including many
which tend to be good for masonry materials: multi-family
construction, educational facilities, hospitals, utilities,
highways, and military facilities, to name a few.
“There’s
no doubt that there’s uncertainty
out there. Some markets may perform better than others
next year, and it may take more effort than during the boom
of the last several years to make sure work goes our way,” says
President John J. Flynn. “But if we use the organizing
tools available, along with IMI’s promotion and
training programs to go after the work, we should be
in good shape.”
: FMI, which includes home improvements
in its projection, is the most optimistic
about the outlook for construction. They
are predicting that construction will continue
to grow by 2.7% in 2002.
:
In October, Robert Murray, Vice President
of Economic Affairs for the McGraw-Hill
Construction Information Group announced
that the value of total contract awards for
new construction would be flat in 2002, after
ten years of steady growth.
: The Commerce Department
is projecting a “mild downturn,” according
to Commerce economist Patrick MacAuley. The
government forecast is calling for a 1.8%
drop in the value of construction put-in-place
(in 1996
dollars) to $708.2 billion dollars in 2002.
: William
Toal, the chief economist for PCA, is predicting
that the events of 2001 will have a more
negative impact, and the total value of construction
will drop 6.3% in 2002, and then pick up
in 2003.
: Alex Carrick, chief economist for
CanaData, is
predicting a modest slowdown in construction
activity in Canada in 2002. He is forecasting
that commercial, industrial, and institutional
construction starts will be off by just over
1%.
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